PetaPixel’s Bold Camera Predictions for 2025

Dec 04, 2024

Jaron Schneider

For its fourth year in a row, PetaPixel has gathered its team together to guess the things they just know are going to take place over the next calendar year. All of us are, as usual, ready to be very, very wrong.

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As we explain every year, thanks to our constant inundation with technology, imaging, and art news, we at PetaPixel get to talk about some of the coolest tech and most interesting trends all the time and can’t help but speculate on what is going to happen next. And while we are probably too informed on the topic given that we are steeped in it on a daily basis, that probably doesn’t mean we’ll be right by much more than they would be (like how being knowledgeable about football doesn’t mean you’re going to draft a great fantasy team), but it’s still a blast to discuss.

Checking Our Work

As is tradition, we don’t let our previous year’s predictions go unchecked. No, it’s time to face the music: were we right?

Prediction: The R1 will be announced in 2024 and will feature a global shutter

Result: Half right. We did get the Canon R1 this year but it didn’t come with a global shutter sensor like we thought. It does, however, sport the fastest-reading rolling shutter we’ve ever tested, though. That counts for something, right? No? Fine.

Prediction: Panasonic will kill the S1 and S1R line

Result: Undetermined. We can’t claim victory here since we haven’t heard one way or the other on this. That said, 2024 has come and gone with no update to the S1 line at all. It feels as good as dead.

Prediction: Sony’s a9 III will get a firmware update to allow CFe 4.0, unlock 240 FPS

Result: Wrong. Sony hasn’t done anything with CFexpress 4.0 — even in the newer a1 II. That’s a shame.

Prediction: Sony will usher in the return of the premium, all in one compact

Result: Wrong. Maybe in 2025?

Prediction: Canon and Nikon will add C2PA via firmware before the 2024 Olympics

Result: Wrong. While Nikon announced compatibility with C2PA, Canon has remained quiet on actually adding it to a camera. Nikon may have said it was coming but it didn’t arrive in a production camera before the Olympics. Everyone is, seemingly, dragging their collective feet here.

Prediction: Canon won’t release another “high resolution” camera, perhaps ever

Result: Correct. Sorry, the R5 Mark II doesn’t count and Canon has still not surpassed the 50-megapixel mark since the 5DS and 5DSR. Our prediction went so far as to say the R1 wouldn’t exceed even 30-megapixels — a prediction that was right.

Prediction: Pentax won’t release the promised 35mm film camera, but it will release a vintage-inspired DSLR

Result: Wrong, and boy are we glad! Pentax did release its half-frame Pentax 17 camera in late spring of 2024 and it’s fantastic. We couldn’t be happier to fail this prediction. Pentax also didn’t release any DSLR in 2024 let along a vintage-inspired one — what a missed opportunity.

Prediction: Sigma’s full-frame Foveon sensor is coming in 2024, or not at all

Result: Correct, somewhat. It definitely did not arrive this year, but it was pretty bold to say that if it didn’t come this year, it wasn’t coming at all. On that note, there is nothing to say we weren’t right but it just doesn’t feel right. More on that in this year’s bold predictions.

Prediction: Sony and Canon will continue to release vlogging cameras despite DJI clearly having won

Result: Correct, mostly. While Canon was silent on that front (shockingly, perhaps it learned from the disaster that was the V10), Sony brought out the ZV-E10 II. That said, Jordan argues it’s less a “vlogging” camera and more a “creator camera,” but that’s splitting hairs.

Prediction: DJI will release a handheld large-sensor camera

Result: Wrong — so wrong in fact, that we’re confident saying this is never happening. If you want that, get a Hasselblad; that’s why DJI bought that brand anyhow.

Bold Predictions for 2025

We admit, that did not go very well. Our predictions from 2023 for 2024 were far more accurate, so we know we have some improving to do. Let’s see if our predictions for 2025 can turn this ship around.

1) Every major camera company is going to release a point-and-shoot camera in 2025.

This prediction is a combination of thoughts from friend of PetaPixel Becca Farsace as well as the rest of the team. Becca predicts that the resurgence in popularity of compact point-and-shoot cameras will finally result in Canon, Sony, and Nikon (which Becca says will be last to the party) finally bringing a model back to market. She believes these will be priced just below $1,000 and will feature a zoom lens.

As part of this, the rest of the team thinks Sony probably will lean more toward bringing back the RX1 rather than an RX100-style camera. In fact, some believe that the only options that will come to market will be those that sport a fixed lens and are aimed at the premium end of the market. Whatever the case, the team believes Fujifilm and Ricoh’s have enjoyed the last of the time alone in this segment.

2) Canon will release a high resolution version of the R1

Even if it’s just the R5 Mark II sensor packed into the R1 body, Canon will give high-end shooting access to the excellent design of the R1 paired with a sensor with more megapixels. We don’t think it’ll exceed 50-megapixels, but Canon will answer the Nikon Z9 and Sony a1 II more directly.

3) Another company will release a 35mm film camera, and it’ll probably be Fujifilm

Pentax saw some great success with the launch of the Pentax 17 and with Kodak ramping up film production and the love of analog photography showing no signs of slowing down, someone will bring in another new 35mm film camera and we’re betting it’s Fujifilm. It will have a fixed lens so that the company doesn’t have to deal with its lens mount situation (Fujifilm doesn’t have a full-frame lens mount) and will be fully featured and aimed at the high-end. We do think the company will have to expand its film production, though, since that’s clearly not at the level it needs to be in order to support a brand new film camera.

4) Nikon will announce the Z5 II and it’ll use the same sensor as the Z6 II

Nikon will revisit the Z5 series with a new camera that will use the same sensor in the older Z6 II but come pared with the autofocus algorithms and latest processor found in the Z6 III. Expect some pared-down video specifications to come with this tradeoff, however.

5) OM System will announce a new camera and it will be a successor to the OM-5 (and EM-5 Mark III)

OM System very much needs to make a splash in 2025 and it’ll start by releasing a new mid-range, enthusiast-level micro four thirds camera that is its 5-series of cameras. It’ll be the first product that OM System will release that was made entirely in the time since Olympus sold off its camera division to Japan Industrial Partners and became what we now know as OM Digital Solutions, owners of the OM System cameras.

OM System OM-5

Part 2: Additionally, OM System will release a new Pen camera but it will largely be a re-release of the older Pen cameras, with some moderate updates to the autofocus algorithms and port selections.

6) Fujifilm will make a big push for faster scanning sensors in the GFX range, probably lower megapixels.

Fujifilm is laser-focused on making medium format for the masses, but to do that, it will need faster scanning sensors that can handle some of the more demanding photo tasks that its 100-megapixel sensor is simply too slow for. That’s where a lower-resolution medium format sensor will come into play. We expect it to be around 50 megapixels and provide a nice bump in performance to both photo and video applications.

A Fujifilm mirrorless camera front view on the left, showing its sensor, and rear view on the right, displaying its LCD screen and controls, set against a gradient green background.

Speaking of faster scanning medium format sensors…

7) The Fujifilm GFX Eterna won’t be the only medium format cinema camera next year.

While we already know the GFX Eterna is coming, it won’t be the only medium format cinema camera Fujifilm announces, but it will be the cheapest. The next level up will likely use the aforementioned faster scanning 50-megapixel sensor and will therefore be better positioned to handle a wider range of cinema tasks than the slower 100-megapixel sensor can.

7) Apple will release photo-editing software that sits between Adobe Photoshop and Lightroom

Apple will be quick to take advantage of its acquisition of Photomator and will release a desktop application that will be the spiritual successor to Aperture (or direct successor, depending on which of us you ask). It won’t be as powerful as Photoshop but will integrate many of the tools already found in Pixelmator. It will take the base code for Photomator and make the batch editing and organization process a bit easier, too. The team is torn on whether this will be a subscription software or not.

A laptop, tablet, and smartphone display photo editing software with the same image of a woman in a red turtleneck. The interfaces show various editing tools and color adjustment sliders.

8) Sigma’s full-frame Foveon camera will finally arrive.

Last year, we made the bold claim that if the full-frame Foveon camera didn’t come in 2024, it wouldn’t come at all. However, after speaking with Sigma CEO Kazuto Yamaki this past February, we changed our tune. This time, we think the manufacturing issues Sigma has been struggling with for years have finally been ironed out and the camera is ready to launch. We don’t know if it’ll be good, but we do think it’s coming in 2025.

9) Sony will launch the a7R VI and it will feature a jump to 80-megapixels.

The a7R V is a great camera, but Sony will finally answer calls to make a full-frame camera that will make the most significant megapixel jump in recent memory. Technically, Sony semiconductor already has the ability to make a 90-megapixel full-frame camera based on Fujifilm’s excellent 40-megapixel APS-C sensor, so there is an easy way to get to this mark. The only thing holding that sensor back would be its scan speed, but for a stills-focused camera, that might not be a deal-breaker.

10) Pentax will announce a new film camera as under development.

After the success of the Pentax 17, Ricoh will announce another film camera project is in development but it won’t arrive until 2026. We hope to see the return of an SLR, but we’ll probably get a fixed-lens full-frame film camera instead.

BONUS PREDICTION: Nikon will make its third special lens model to join the Plena and the Noct.

We don’t know why the 135mm f/1.8 Plena has a name, but we’re here for it. That’s why we think Nikon will release the third member of this series that will be a super-bright, wide-angle lens that is designed to be outstanding for astrophotography. Maybe they can call it the Luna.